Supporters of President Obama are contending that a second term for him would differ significantly from the first because he wouldn't be saddled with as many "Bluedog" Democrats in the U.S. House; those who deserted the Democratic Party in the 2010 elections would come back due to fear of the election of a Republican president; and Obama would no longer need to trim his agenda to get re-elected. I believe that these kinds of contentions are rendered wistful in nature when looked at in terms of Obama's performance to date and what he has revealed about his future plans.
1) A Bloated Pentagon - The United States, with about five percent of the world's population, accounts for almost half of world military spending. In President Obama's FY 2012 budget, he submitted a ten-year projection of Pentagon spending, totaling nearly $6.4 trillion. Obama's 12-year plan calls for only $400 billion in military spending cuts, or about five percent of projected spending in those years.
President Obama has also appointed a defense secretary, Leon Panetta, who sees any further cuts in military spending as endangering national security.
2) More Nukes - President Obama gave a speech early in his presidency in which he painted a bright future of a world without nuclear weapons. Since that speech, the only action Obama has taken to reduce the number of nuclear warheads has been the New START treaty with Russia. Getting that treaty ratified in the U.S. Senate was costly, however, because to get the ratification, Obama poured many billions of dollars into a nuclear weapons modernization program.
The heart of that modernization program is the building of three new facilities, which will quadruple the capacity to build nuclear warheads. The Pentagon's JASON study found that the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile is safe and reliable for a hundred or more years. The future blueprint for nukes includes a new nuclear-armed submarine fleet and a new bomber capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
3) The Intelligence Empire - There has been a tremendous expansion of building complexes, organizations, locations for intelligence work, personnel and spending since 9/11, as chronicled in a series run in the Washington Post. In the presidential campaign, Barack Obama promised to rein in the intelligence empire and make its operations more transparent; however, as set forth in a PBS "Frontline" program, he has taken no action to reduce the growth of this empire. Obama actually requested more intelligence spending in his FY 2012 budget than Congress was willing to give him; the Obama administration also strongly objected to the request by Congress for more information about the status of Guantanamo and government-to-government contacts. So much for the campaign promise of more intelligence transparency.
4) The Growth of Anti-Missile Defenses - President Obama has followed the practice of prior presidents in continuing the funding of Ronald Reagan's Star Wars fantasy, which purported to destroy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) before they reached the United States. Not only have these anti-missile missiles failed many tests, they stand as an admission that the national government has no faith in the large deterrent inventory of offensive missiles.
President Obama has also continued the George W. Bush plan to station anti-missile missiles in Eastern Europe to protect against Iran improbably launching nuclear warheads in that direction. The only change is that Obama has switched the defenses from a long-range to a short-range missile threat. This future deployment has seriously strained U.S. relations with Russia.
5) Increased Use of Drones - The best estimate of the Obama administration's use of drones is that it has quadrupled over the use of drones under Bush. Great Britain's Guardian newspaper says that the Obama White House has or is making use of drones in six countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia and Yemen. Missile strikes by drones would, in times before 9/11, have been considered to be acts of war. Some analysts fear that the growing popularity of drones in the world may make wars more likely because no more pilots are exposed to harm.
The next blog will continue to explore the likely consequences of an Obama second term.
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